On 22 August 2023, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra returned to Thailand after 15 years in self-exile. He was taken straight into custody from the airport to serve out a sentence for previous corruption convictions. A little over a week later, Thaksin submitted a request for a royal pardon, which was granted in the form of his jail sentence being reduced from eight years to one.

Thaksin’s desire to return to Thailand was well known. He has previously announced over twenty attempts to return, and his sister Yingluck Shinawatra’s infamous attempt to grant him an amnesty during her premiership in 2014 triggered the military coup that shut his Pheu Thai Party out of power for nine years.

Ironically, it was the Pheu Thai’s first election loss in two decades at the May general election that created the conditions for Thaksin to return. The victorious Move Forward Party’s controversial proposals to reform Thailand’s monarchy and military made its presence in government unacceptable to the conservative establishment. Having finished second, the Thaksin-affiliated Pheu Thai became a necessary partner to lock Move Forward out of power.

Read the full piece at East Asia Forum.