One of the biggest open questions in Thai politics is 1) what the “grand compromise” between the Thaksinites and the conservatives entailed, and 2) whether or not there is a possibility that it might fracture. Back when I co-wrote this piece on the grand compromise, the state of the grand compromise still looked pretty tidy: the conservatives were still largely united as a bloc and remained fully allied with Pheu Thai, the Move Forward Party was still left largely alone in the cold, and the status quo looked like it could hold on for the time being.

The second half of the year, of course, brought on several incidents that shook up the political landscape. Thaksin Shinawatra started accusing powerbroker Prawit Wongsuwan of causing trouble, Srettha Thavisin was removed as prime minister and replaced by Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn in murky circumstances, and finally Prawit’s party Palang Pracharath was ejected from the coalition. Coupled with the increasing influence of Bhumjaithai, who holds sway over the Senate, the coalition was looking increasingly rickety.

What to make, then, of the recent spat between Thaksin and Thanathorn Juangroongrueangkit, who remains the spiritual leader of the progressives and the People’s Party? Over the past week, Thaksin gave us several eyebrow-raising quotes:

• At his first political rally in 18 years, Thaksin compared his party to the People’s Party by saying that while Pheu Thai’s local candidate only needed to have banners of himself with Paetongtarn, the PP needed ex-PM candidate Pita Limjaroenrat (implying their leader Nattapong Rueangpanyawut has no popularity)
• Thaksin also said that he had previously warned Thanathorn of the dangers of trying to pursue too much structural change, and that “some things that were advertised may be more dangerous than the things he actually intends to do.” Thanathorn wrote a strongly worded rebuttal on social media in response, saying that Thaksin himself knew full well that their disagreements over the lese-majeste law were not the sticking point over why Pheu Thai and Move Forward could not form a coalition together, and that “instead of cooperating to solve problems, Thaksin has chosen to become part of the problem”
• Paetongtarn, in an Instagram story that did not feel entirely prime ministerial, told Thanathorn not to “hallucinate” about Pheu Thai imposing the lese-majeste law as a coalition condition.

That’s a lot of fire and fury between politicians that have, by and large, left each other conspicuously outside the political firing line. The relative silence that Move Forward and its successor has maintained over the dubious situation around Thaksin’s return to Thailand and subsequent stay in the Police General Hospital has been noted by many observers. With disagreements continually bubbling between Pheu Thai and their coalition partners — over marijuana with Bhumjaithai, for example — this silence has been interpreted as a way to leave the door open for a reconciliation with Pheu Thai.

So how do we make sense of Thaksin’s remarks and Thanathorn’s response? My take is that while they are interesting signals which show increased readiness to do open battle, Thaksin was being driven particularly by local dynamics: he was trying to differentiate his own local candidate in the Udon Thani Provincial Administrative Organization race and needed to take the People’s Party head on. Udon Thani, considered a capital of the red shirt movement, is a must-win province for Pheu Thai. The progressives have never won a PAO seat; its first being Udon Thani would send a seismic shift through the political scene.

In remarks that has been given less attention, Thaksin has also been unable to resist taking shots at his new conservative allies. He criticized what he called the legacy of the 2014 military coup, arguing that it has created a bloated bureaucracy. Hardly a way to curry favor with the United Thai Nation Party, a key coalition partner which had been formed to support coupmaker Prayut Chan-o-cha. If Thaksin’s quotes are a way to tell which way Pheu Thai is leaning, we are getting mixed signals indeed.

If there is anything we have learned from the past two years in Thai politics, it is that even the most deeply-rooted alliances are ephemeral and decades-long hatred can be set aside for a marriage of convenience. The current status quo is still working out for Pheu Thai and the conservative allies, sans Prawit who is still left in the cold. But despite Thaksin’s attacks on the progressives, it would not surprise me at all if when the situation changes Pheu Thai launches renewed overtures to the People’s Party.