In a result that few forecasted, the 2023 general election in Thailand was won by the Move Forward Party, ending twenty years of electoral dominance by political parties affiliated with Thaksin Shinawatra and relegating the conservative parties from genuine competition to form a government. However, the coalition that Move Forward attempted to put together fell apart that summer, and the party found itself ejected from the government camp by the Pheu Thai Party, which instead partnered with its erstwhile foes in the conservative establishment. I call this the “Grand Compromise.”

Here, I outline the research and commentary that I have written on the Grand Compromise, which now serves as the foundation of post-2023 contemporary Thai politics.

Mathis Lohatepanont and Napon Jatusripitak: Causes and Effects of Pheu Thai’s Grand Compromise: The Lurking Instability of Thailand’s Post-2023 Party System

We analyze the “grand compromise” between the Pheu Thai Party and the conservative parties after the 2023 general election, which resulted in a fundamental realignment of Thai politics. We unpack how a new strategic triangle has emerged between Thaksinites, conservatives, and progressives. This piece also proposes a new classification system for Thai political parties, based their stance on the status quo and the extent to which they successfully mobilized votes through nationally programmatic or localist strategies.

Napon Jatusripitak and Mathis Lohatepanont: After the Grand Compromise: Voter Profiles in Thai Politics

A sequel to our previous piece, in this ISEAS Perspective we analyze voter attitudes in Thailand in the wake of the grand compromise between Pheu Thai and the conservatives and how partisan allegiances may shift as a result. We argue that Thai voters can be divided into four categories: reconciliatory conservatives, populist reformists, traditional conservatives, and progressive reformists; analysis of these voter segments reveal that they will likely respond differently to the grand compromise. This piece draws on original survey data conducted in 2023.