Drawing on urbanization data and fieldwork observations of campaigning in the lead-up to the 2023 general election, we take a fresh look at Anek Laothamathas’ famous “Tale of Two Democracies” theory, which argued that there is a significant difference between how Thailand’s urban and rural voters behave. We find that rural and urban voters have now converged in significant ways, but there is still a distinct divide between densely populated urban areas and sparsely populated rural areas.

In this ISEAS Perspective, we analyze the “grand compromise” between the Pheu Thai Party and the conservative parties after the 2023 general election, which resulted in a fundamental realignment of Thai politics. We unpack how a new strategic triangle has emerged between Thaksinites, conservatives, and progressives. This piece also proposes a new classification system for Thai political parties, based their stance on the status quo and the extent to which they successfully mobilized votes through nationally programmatic or localist strategies.

A sequel to our previous piece, in this ISEAS Perspective we analyze voter attitudes in Thailand in the wake of the grand compromise between Pheu Thai and the conservatives and how partisan allegiances may shift as a result. We argue that Thai voters can be divided into four categories: reconciliatory conservatives, populist reformists, traditional conservatives, and progressive reformists; analysis of these voter segments reveal that they will likely respond differently to the grand compromise. This piece draws on original survey data conducted in 2023.

Fulcrum: “Political Will Sorely Lacking in Thai Educational Reform” (October 4, 2024)

Thai Data Points: “The Strength of Party Brands at the 2023 General Election” (with Chitchaya Chimtanoo) (December 18, 2023)

Fulcrum: “One Constituency, Two Parties: Ballot Splitting and Divided Loyalties in Thailand’s Election” (with Napon Jatusripitak) (July 28, 2023)

Asialink Insights: “The decline of the Shinawatras promises new political era for Thailand” (July 21, 2025)

East Asia Forum: “Thailand’s grand political compromise cracks under pressure” (June 15, 2025)

Asialink Insights: “Thaksin Shinawatra’s poisoned chalice” (August 23, 2024)

9DashLine: “The New Thai Senate: Less Powerful and Less Predictable” (July 25, 2024)

Fulcrum: Political Dealmaking Will Determine the Winner and Twist Policy Outcomes in Thailand’s Election (April 6, 2023)

East Asia Forum: “New Bangkok Governor challenges government’s grip on power” (July 15, 2022)

Rattanakhamfu, Sawaoruj et al. โครงการการจัดซื้อจัดจ้างภาครัฐเพื่อสนับสนุนนวัตกรรมผ่านมาตรการบัญชีนวัตกรรมไทย [Supporting public procurement for innovation through Thailand’s Innovation Catalog] (April 2022)

Rattanakhamfu, Saowaruj et al. การปรับโครงสร้างแรงงานสร้างสรรค์ในอุตสาหกรรมสร้างสรรค์ของไทยในยุคหลังโควิด-19 [Restructuring of creative workforce in the Thai creative industries in the post-Covid-19 era] (December 2021)